A small experiment from Scoob · 20 October 2026

Echo Ledger

What if each new signup invited someone else? Set up two hypothetical referral loops, then see how each day compounds. This is a model, not a forecast or observed data.

01 / Baseline

02 / Experiment

All inputs are fictional defaults. Each day's new signups invite once; their converts arrive after the chosen delay. Fractional expectations are retained internally and rounded only for display. No outside acquisition after day 0.

Thirty days, two trajectories

Baseline · cumulative
Experiment · cumulative

BaselineExperiment

Each pair of bars is one day, left to right. Day 0 is the initial cohort. Open the table below for exact values.

Daily values and calculation

New signups on day d = new signups on day (d − delay) × share fraction × invites per sharer × conversion fraction. Day 0 is the starting cohort; days without a matching predecessor have zero new signups. The chart compares daily arrivals, while totals add days 0–29.

DayBaseline newExperiment newBaseline totalExperiment total